A news release from GlobalData, December 11, 2013
The total number of breast cancer cases in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, urban China and Brazil is expected to increase by 44 percent over the next decade, from 0.90 million in 2012 to 1.29 million by 2022, forecasts research and consulting firm GlobalData.
According to the company’s latest report (available for only $3995!), the number of women alive five years after a diagnosis will also grow by 44 percent, climbing from 3.7 million in 2012 to 5.39 million by 2022. Out of the nine countries studied, the US and urban China had the highest number of cases five years past diagnosis in 2012, with 1.15 million and 898,406 cases, respectively.
Samantha Lee, GlobalData’s Epidemiologist, says: “The forecast growth in breast cancer incidence is partly due to rising cases of obesity, growing detection through screening programs, and changes in reproductive patterns and the use of postmenopausal hormone replacement therapy.” [The latter is not a big factor in cases of triple-negative breast cancer.]
According to the World Health Organization, increased breast cancer survival has contributed greatly to the prevalence of the disease, and there is a large body of evidence showing that breast cancer mammographic screening is effective in reducing the disease mortality by at least 20 percent in women aged 50 years and older.
“Prevention measures taken to improve breast cancer survival in parts of the world where organized nationwide mammography screening has only been made available in recent years, such as Brazil and China, will boost survival rates and impact the disease incidence and prevalence in those countries,” Lee says.
Nonetheless, GlobalData epidemiologists expect the impact of screening in these markets to be limited in the short term. This is due to the lack of sufficient resources and infrastructure needed to support the healthcare needs associated with screening, such as additional diagnostic tests and treatment.